A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
